Japan’s commitment to spending 2% of GDP on defence by 2027 marks a strategic shift, reflecting Tokyo’s proactive stance on regional security challenges and global alliance commitments.
Japan’s decision to increase defence spending to 2% of GDP by 2027 represents a pivotal moment in its post-Cold War security strategy. While the two-percent figure is largely symbolic taking into account currency fluctuations, it nevertheless demonstrates Tokyo’s determination to respond to regional and global security challenges. This transformation is not merely reactive but marks a broader strategic recalibration. Central to this is the heightened recognition of the interconnectedness between Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security, as demonstrated by the ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In particular, the Russo-Ukrainian war has underscored the failure of deterrence in Europe, prompting Japan to adopt measures to strengthen its own security posture. This includes acquiring counterstrike capabilities, revising arms export policies, and enhancing its defence industrial base. This commentary explores how Japan’s defence budget increase aligns with evolving strategic realities, while also addressing domestic and international implications.
Revised Budget Framework: A Strategic Leap
Building on the late Shinzo Abe’s initiative to modernise the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF), the latest defence budget represents a historic commitment to enhancing Japan’s military capabilities. Japan is on track to allocate 1.6% of its GDP to defence in FY2024, with plans to reach 2% by 2027 – an unprecedented level in its post-war history, breaking the traditional ‘1% of GDP’ rule. The FY2024 budget, including related expenditures, is approximately ¥9.36 trillion. For FY2025, the budget request stands at ¥8.73 trillion, reflecting Japan’s sustained commitment to achieving its defence goals.
This transformation is not merely reactive but marks a broader strategic recalibration
The transition from a strictly defensive military posture to one actively deterring and intercepting threats is supported by investments in cutting-edge capabilities. Key allocations in the FY2025 budget request include:
- ¥970.0 billion – Stand-Off Defence Capabilities: Japan is prioritising long-range precision weapons like the Tomahawk missile, which boasts a range of 1,600 km (1,000 miles), and the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ upgraded Type-12 surface-to-ship missile, with an extended range of 1,000 km (621 miles). These systems signify the establishment of counterstrike capabilities aimed at addressing threats from China and North Korea.
- ¥537.3 billion – Integrated Air and Missile Defence: Japan is expanding its air and missile defence networks to address hypersonic and ballistic missile threats. This includes upgraded radar systems, advanced interceptor missiles, and enhanced joint operations with US forces.
- ¥491.0 billion – Cyber and Space Domains (combined from Space [¥226.5 billion] and Cyber [¥264.5 billion]): Investments target emerging multi-domain threats across cyber, space and electromagnetic spectrum operations. Key projects include deploying satellite constellations for situational awareness, tracking capabilities, and integrating these with counterstrike defences.
- ¥407.1 billion – Command and Control and Intelligence Functions: Enhancing command, control and intelligence infrastructure will boost operational autonomy and joint operations, critical for executing complex missions in the Indo-Pacific region.
- ¥103.2 billion – Unmanned Asset Defence Capabilities: The modernisation programme includes phasing out outdated observation helicopters and investing in drones and unmanned systems. These changes aim to enhance responsiveness while reducing operational costs.
- ¥447.6 billion – Maneuvering Deployment and Civil Protection: This budget strengthens Japan’s capacity to project power and protect civilian infrastructure.
- ¥2,952.2 billion – Sustainability and Resiliency (combined from Ammunition and Missiles [¥344.0 billion], Equipment Maintenance [¥1,751.1 billion], and Facility Reinforcement [¥857.1 billion]): Ensuring adequate stockpiles of ammunition and critical supplies, as well as fortifying operational bases, is central to Japan’s ability to sustain prolonged engagements.
