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China’s South China Sea Islands Might Be a Big Paper Tiger

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The Chinese have spent years illegally constructing seven man-made islands in the South China Sea. They have lined some of the islands with anti-aircraft and anti-ship defenses.

The islands are part of Beijing’s aggressive approach in the South China Sea, where China lays dubious claim to 1.3 million square miles of ocean space. 

Significantly, the Spratly Islands are in this sea, close to the Philippines. China has built three airfields on the Spratlys, with hangars to house 72 aircraft. The airbase on Woody Island in the Paracels holds 16 more hangars.

Six other nations—the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, and Taiwan—claim the waterways where China’s artificial islands sit. Since 2014, China has built up these tiny man-made islands, putting up massive military structures and defenses, including Fiery Cross Reef, which has an airfield, missiles, and other equipment. It is located 620 miles from the Chinese coast.  

A few years ago, Yun Sun, East Asia Program senior associate at the Stimson Center, said Beijing was “telling the United States that China is not trying to have a war with the U.S. in the South China Sea and China cannot even win a war in the South China Sea.”

No disrespect to Sun, but I doubt China believes this. Beijing built and fortified these islands for a reason. Still, I do believe it was not explicitly for a war with the United States. If there is a shooting war with the U.S., China would expect hostilities to focus much farther north, around Taiwan. 

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