With a spate of high-profile raids and attacks on military installations, the Pakistani Army is facing its worst crisis since 2014, when it had launched its largest crackdown on militant groups under Operation Zarb-e-Azb.
Last week’s two attacks – a strike on an army convoy that killed 14 soldiers in Gwadar and a raid on the Mianwali training air base of the Pakistan Air Force that damaged some assets – are symbolic of what has been a testing year.
What makes the losses glaring this year is that in 2014 the Pakistani Army had launched a massive crackdown on a network of militant groups, including Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). However, this year, there has been no such action. Moreover, Pakistani Army has faced the wrath of political protesters, who have attacked several installations after the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and even burnt down the house of the Lahore Corps Commander.
Some of the violence is being attributed to Taliban’s presence in Afghanistan and its tacit support for militant groups operating along the border. “TTP has been empowered by support from a resurgent Afghan Taliban. It is receiving support, possibly even arms, from the Kandahar faction of the Taliban that is perhaps looking to create a long-term military buffer against the Haqqani faction. The current cycle of violence against security forces in Pakistan is a reflection of this play,” said Kabir ..
“This escalation can be attributed to resurgence of Noor Wali Mehsud, leading more than 30 local factions from Swat and Waziristan to pledge allegiance to him. This has seen TTP slowly regain the strength it once enjoyed during the pre-Zarb-e-Azb era,” said Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (retd), who has commanded the South Western, Eastern and Central Commands of the Indian Army.
He said Taliban in Afghanistan is facing a dilemma as any action against TTP could make the group form an alliance with ISIS and other factions. A lack of action could result in a military operation by Pakistan to target border areas.
“Pakistan military finds itself stretched thin, as it must simultaneously address insurgency in Balochistan, confront TTP and maintain its role as a centre of political power during times of political turmoil in Pakistan,” he said.
