Russian forces are preparing to launch a fresh military offensive in the coming weeks to maximize the pressure on Ukraine and strengthen the Kremlin’s negotiating position in ceasefire talks, Ukrainian government and military analysts said.
The move could give Russian President Vladimir Putin every reason to delay discussions about pausing the fighting in favour of seeking more land, the Ukrainian officials said, renewing their country’s repeated arguments that Russia has no intention of engaging in meaningful dialogue to end the war.
With the spring fighting season drawing near, the Kremlin is eyeing a multi-pronged push across the 1,000-kilometer (621-mile) front line, according to the analysts and military commanders.
Citing intelligence reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia is getting ready for new offensives in the northeast Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizizhia regions.
They’re dragging out the talks and trying to get the US stuck in endless and pointless discussions about fake conditions’ just to buy time and then try to grab more land, Zelenskyy said Thursday in a visit to Paris. Putin wants to negotiate over territory from a stronger position.
Two G7 diplomatic officials in Kyiv agreed with that assessment. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the press.
Russia has effectively rejected a US proposal for an immediate and full 30-day halt in the fighting, and the feasibility of a partial ceasefire on the Black Sea was thrown into doubt after Kremlin negotiators imposed far-reaching conditions.
Battlefield success is clearly in Putin’s mind.
On the entire front line, the strategic initiative is completely in the hands of the Russian armed forces, Putin said Thursday at a forum in the Arctic port of Murmansk. “Our troops, our guys are moving forward and liberating one territory after another, one settlement after another, every day.
Kremlin forces keep pressing forward Ukrainian military commanders said Russia recently stepped up attacks to improve its tactical positions ahead of the expected broader offensive.
They need time until May, that’s all, said Ukrainian military analyst Pavlo Narozhnyi, who works with soldiers and learns about intelligence from them.
In the north, Russian and North Korean soldiers have nearly deprived Kyiv of an essential bargaining chip by retaking most of Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian soldiers staged a daring incursion last year. Battles have also escalated along the eastern front in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.
A concern among some commanders is whether Russia might divert battle-hardened forces from Kursk to other parts of the east.
It will be hard. The forces from Kursk will come on a high from their wins there,” said a Ukrainian battalion commander in the Donetsk region, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe his concerns.
